Showing posts with label Ubaldo Jimenez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ubaldo Jimenez. Show all posts

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Choo-Choo gone?

Could Choo be on his way out of Cleveland?
I think that might be the Indians best option.
Photo courtesy of Wikimedia Commons 
If the right deal comes along, the Indians should trade Shin-Soo Choo.

I honestly didn't think this would even be on the table back in March or April, but the time has come and I'll tell you why.

After defeating Justin Verlander on Thursday, the Indians fell flat on their faces, getting swept in their three game series in Minnesota.

And that's putting it politely.

The Twins outscored the Indians 28-6. For those of you who don't like subtraction, that's a "diff" of -22. Numbers like that in a three game series are nothing short of pathetic.

Of course, that means the starters' ERA for this series was an abhorrent 11.81. Josh Tomlin has been downright awful in his last eight outings with a 2-5 record and a 7.02 ERA, and he was dismal in game one giving up eight runs (all earned) on 10 hits in 4.0 innings. Ouch.

Derek Lowe didn't pitch in this series, but he's been just as bad over his last 12 starts, going 2-8 with a 7.59 ERA. Justin Masterson came on and crapped out in game two, and Ubaldo Jimenez had a forgettable performance in game three.

And then the offense... The Indians scored three meaningful runs all weekend—one in each game. Sure, they scored five runs in Saturday's contest, but four of those were scored in the eighth and ninth innings when the game had long been decided—what I like to call Garbage Time.

And manager Manny Acta also had a terrible series, leaving his players out to dry by refusing to argue at least three blown calls. What frustrated me the most about Acta, though, is that he had the nerve to say that the calls were blown after the game on Saturday (not to mention the bad call on Sunday with Asdrubal Cabrera tagging out a would-be base stealer that wasn't called out).

Look, if the calls were blown, the manager should at least go out there and have a conversation with the umpire. I don't need a guy to kick dirt, or make a spectacle out of the whole thing, but if you think the umps blew the call, go tell them. Immediately! Don't wait till the half-inning, or when you're talking to the press to air your grievances.

But I digress. The real question with all this is how in the wide, wide world of sports did the Indians play so poorly after such a nice solid against Detroit?

Well, the answer lies in the numbers. At the end of the game today, STO presented these stats in a graphic and I hope you all don't mind if I hit you with them now.

The Indians since the All-Star break...
Games: 17
Record: 6-11
Runs Per Game: 3.0
Games of 3 runs or less: 13
Batting Average: .229
Starters ERA: 6.33
Runs Scored: 51 (Worst in AL)

Had enough yet?

I know I've been as loud as anyone about the team scoring three runs or less, but the problem is that this is not just a second half trend. The Indians overall record is 50-52. They're just 27-25 at home, 23-27 on the road. Their run differential is -66—an alarming stat for any team trying to contend. And now they've fallen to six games out of the AL Central, and 5.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot.

Not to mention that in 49 of their 102 games overall, they've scored three runs or less.

Think about that, in nearly half of their games, the Indians have not scored more than three runs! And this is supposed to be an AL team! I've been an Chris Antonetti/Mark Shapiro apologist for years, but the way they put this team together with shoe strings and gum is absurd.

And that is why at this point in the season, with the team playing as poorly as it is, it's time to sell. Obviously, veterans like Lowe and Johnny Damon should go. Casey Kotchman is expendable as well—same with Jose Lopez and Shelly Duncan. But here's where we come back to the beginning of this here post with the idea of trading Shin-Soo Choo.

I'm a big Choo fan, and I honestly think the Indians should do their damnedest to re-sign him after the 2013 season. But, based on the team's track record, I have absolute no faith that they'll even try. Thus, it's time for the Indians to do what they do best and fleece other teams out of their quality prospects.

The rumor circulated today that the Pirates are interested in Choo, but would have to deal Starling Marte to make the deal work. If the Pirates call up the Indians willing to make that deal, the Indians have got to seriously consider it.

Marte is 23, bats right handed,  and is a pretty electric player in the outfield. He was called up on Thursday and immediately made an impact, drilling the first pitch he saw in Houston out of the park. If the Indians can get this guy, they'd be foolish not to explore the possibility.

But because Choo wouldn't just be a rental, I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Indians to want a pitcher out of the deal as well. And it can't just be some far away prospect, I'm talking about a good AAA pitcher. Yes, 2011 No. 1 overall pick Garret Cole is also in the Pirates system, but I don't think Choo is worth all that much. I'd be plenty happy with Jeff Locke, and I could settle for Justin Williams. Both of those guys are 24, and have continued to show progress throughout their minor league careers. One of them must be included in any deal with the Pirates for Choo, and I'd expect Antonetti to stipulate that.

I keep saying this team was put together with shoe strings and gum, and I really do believe it. The inconsistency has turned into Garbage Baseball, and after getting swept by the Twins, it seems the season is all but over. As unfortunate as it is, it's time to sing a little Goodnight Irene and get a good deal for a very good player.

~MAS

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Case of the "Aces"

Photo Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons
If you're any kind of Indians fan, you probably have an opinion on the Ubaldo Jimenez trade and the way the former 19-game winner has pitched since coming to the Tribe last July. But the Big U is not the only guy in the front of the rotation I'm concerned about.

As inconsistent as Ubaldo has been in his 21 starts with the Indians, Justin Masterson had become the gold standard for consistency game in and game out. Last season, each time Masterson took the mound, you had to feel good about the Tribe's chances to win the game—it would only be a matter of whether the offense could score enough runs.

This year, though, all that has changed with Masterson. After 11 starts, the big righty is 2-4 with an eye popping 5.05 ERA. And supposed No. 2, Ubaldo, is 5-4 with a 5.79 ERA.

Of course, record and ERA aren't everything so let me hit you with some more numbers. Masterson's WHIP (walks+hits per inning pitched) is 1.49, while Ubaldo's is 1.79—both of those marks are well above each pitcher's career average. Based on that previous number this may not surprise you, but Masterson and Jimenez are also top 5 in the AL in walks—Masterson at No. 5 with 34, Ubaldo tops in the league with 42.

Needless to say, those are not the kind of stats you want from your top two starters.

So what do you do when you've got a problem like the Indians have with these two? Well, first off I think they need to be treated as separate entities. As Indians mlb.com beat writer, Jordan Bastian, pointed out on his Twitter earlier tonight, Masterson has had three bad starts that have been really bad. Other than that, Masterson has a 3.08 ERA over 52.2 innings. The bad starts have produced a 12.06 ERA in 15.2 innings.

Even in the beating he took tonight, Masterson showed some positive signs. He didn't walk a batter, and only allowed earned runs in the first two innings. He also saved the bullpen by throwing six innings. Okay, so the damage had already been done, but at least Masterson did something good.

Ubaldo, on the other hand...what the heck do you do with the guy? I tweeted the other day that it's really hard for the Indians to justify having Zach McAllister in AAA while Jimenez stinks up the majors, but that's exactly what's happening right now. One of the many, many problems with Ubaldo is that you never know which Ubaldo your'e going to get when he steps onto the mound.

I've read a lot of Ubaldo apologists and defenders talk about how "he's much better at home!" and, I'll admit, based on the numbers that's true. At the Jake this season, Ubaldo is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA. He's also holding opposing hitters to a .171 batting average. Those numbers are pretty ace-like, but he's still walked 19 batters and struck out just 17 in 32 innings.

But I'm sure you all know what those nice numbers at home mean—he's been downright horrendous on the road. We're talking 9.00 ERA, .358 batting average against, 39 hits, and 23 walks in just 24 innings. And the show he put on against the White Sox on Sunday was nothing short of pathetic—and that's me being nice.

So what do you do with Ubaldo? I don't know, put special glasses on him so that every time he pitches he thinks he's in Cleveland?

I'll say this—a professional pitcher who's making $4.2 million dollars should be able to pitch no matter where he is. I'm sick of hearing the "he's working on his mechanics" excuse—that crap should've been done in Spring Training and the calendar is about to flip to June.

With Jimenez, I think it's definitely a mental issue. I hope every day, Manny Acta is in his ear telling him to get his stuff in gear, and every time he has a start like he did in Chicago, Acta takes him to the woodshed.

Indians GM Chris Antonetti has consistently said that the Tribe acquired Ubaldo to be a "front of the rotation" starter. Well you know what, I'm sick of him pitching like a guy that needs to be sent down to AAA. Is 9-8 with a 5.41 ERA in 21 starts what you'd expect from a so-called "front of the rotation" guy?

Yeah, I didn't think so.

Masterson has shown that he can still be the ace we need him to be—his start last Thursday against Detroit and Justin Verlander is a prime example. But if the Indians are going to be a playoff team, both Masterson and Jimenez must to step up and consistently be the pitchers they're supposed to be.

Well, that or maybe we could get some addition by subtraction by finding a way to rid the rotation of Ubaldo until he gets his you-know-what together.

Can't hurt to wish, right?
~MAS

Monday, May 28, 2012

The Memorial Day Checkpoint

Many people around MLB feel like Memorial Day is a good time to gage where teams stand and see which teams are or are not legitimate. And while we should all take a moment out of our days to be thankful for the men and women who have served—and are serving—this great country, the day off also allows for some time to talk baseball.

Granted a whole lot can change between the unofficial start of summer and its unofficial end of Labor Day, but since we're all fairly invested in the Tribe, I think it's safe to say that this team is pretty legit.

Now I know the White Sox opened up a can of whoop-you-know-what on us over the weekend, but how many games were you really expecting the Indians to win in a series the team played without its 3-5 hitters? How many teams can loose all three of those key bats and still have a decent offensive attack?

Strangely enough, the answer is...the Indians. After losing 9-3 on Friday night, Acta's Fun Bunch came out and scored seven runs on Saturday, six on Sunday, and now eight today. And I'll say this, a team that has Jose Lopez in the cleanup hitters spot should not be scoring seven runs a game. That's incredible.

But right now, we're seeing a few guys step up and put the team right on their back—Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis. Those two players have done so much for the team in the past few days, both offensively and defensively.

If you haven't seen this catch Brantley made on Saturday in Chicago, watch it and be reminded of Kenny Lofton in the 90s.



And how can you say enough about Kipnis? The JK-Kid is still in his first full season in the big leagues  and in his first three game stint as a No. 3 hitter he's gone 7/13 with four runs scored and six RBI. Not to mention he hit two home runs off of Jake Peavy in Chicago. Plus, Kipnis has hit an incredible .500 (12-24) in his last six games. Those are some serious numbers folks, and I think it's a fantastic sign of things to come.

With Lonnie Chisenhall back up from AAA to replace the injured Jack Hannahan, I think the future is now for the Indians infield. It's just my unprofessional opinion, but I think Chisenhall's swing looks a lot more compact and smooth than it did towards the end of last season on this home run.

But, of course, the last three games, the starting pitching has really let the team down. I can't even get into the enigma that is Ubaldo Jimenez without wanting to scream, but Derek Lowe definitely had the clunker for which he was probably due. And even though we won the game, the team needs more out of Josh Tomlin than five innings with four earned runs.

The good thing is that Masterson has come on as of late, pitching seven strong innings and only giving up one run in his last start against Detroit on Thursday. Also, as bad as Ubaldo has been, you've got to feel at least moderately good about Lowe, Gomez and Tomlin for the rest of the rotation.

So what's the point of all this? Well, yes the Indians do have offensive problems—even with Asdrubal and Santana back later this week, the Indians still have way too many lefties in the lineup and an albatross in left field. Maybe Matt LaPorta will be able to fill that void, but I doubt it. Either way, I'm sure President Mark Shapiro and GM Chris Antonetti have been working the phones, trying to find some kind of bat to put out there.

But for now, as Chris Perez so tactlessly put it, let's just enjoy this first place baseball team. I fully expect the Motor City Fat Cats to get their act together and start mashing the ball with good pitching, but for now, let's hope we can beat up on the cellar dwellers of the AL Central to create some more separation in the division.

More to come, Tribe fans.
~MAS

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Notice of Concern: Ubaldo Jimenez

The Tribe might have been better off letting
Ubaldo Jimenez stay in a Rockies uniform
last season.

Photo courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
When the Indians traded three of their top ten prospects in reliever Joe Gardener, then starter-now reliever Alex White and flamethrower Drew Pomeranz to the Rockies last summer, I said I was conflicted.

I said that I wanted starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, but I wasn't sure about trading Pomeranz for him—especially because Pomeranz had done nothing but exceed everyone's expectations in his first professional season.

And now that Pomeranz has made the Rockies rotation out of Spring Training, White has made the Rockies bullpen, and Gardener is expected to be at the major league level at some point this season, I can't help but think the Indians made a very bad deal.

Just so we're clear, I would be saying this even if Ubaldo hadn't gotten himself suspended five games for beaning Troy Tulowitzki on Sunday afternoon. (Ubaldo's appealing the suspension, so he most likely won't miss his first start on Saturday versus the Blue Jays.)

In any case, yes, it's true that Ubaldo could regain his form and be an effective top of the rotation starter again. Yes, Spring Training does not count. But how can it not be a concern that his velocity is down to 93-94 MPH, from about 96 MPH in his heyday with the Rockies?

And how can it not be a concern that he's so immature that he felt like throwing at Troy Tulowitzki in the first inning instead of trying to make Tulo look foolish by striking him out?

And how can it not be a concern that overall this spring, Ubaldo compiled a 1-4 record with a 7.43 ERA with 15 strikeouts and 15 walks in 23 innings?

And how can it not be a concern that even when Ubaldo had his best start of the spring—a five inning outing against the White Sox—he still made 90 pitches and was behind in the count way too often, which didn't allow him to go his scheduled six innings?

Drew Pomeranz, on the other hand, had a stellar spring—and I may be selling him short by just saying "stellar," because he was truly outstanding. He went 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA in 17 innings. That's right, folks, he gave up just one earned run in 17 spring innings. He gave up 11 hits, walked just four, and struck out 11 this spring as well.

You see the problem here?

Yes, it's just Spring Training, but Pomeranz has a chance to be better than Ubaldo this season, already! It's positively absurd that the Indians former top prospect could be better than the pitcher we traded him for this year, but it's well within the realm of possibility.

This trade stung when it happend all those months ago, but it could sting even more if Ubaldo doesn't get his you-know-what together and start pitching like an ace. I'm sorry, but when you trade a prospect who you figure is going to be great for a pitcher who you believe can regain his form, you need it to work out.

And nobody needs this trade to work out better for the Indians than GM Chris Antonetti. This was his first big move as GM, and so far it's the biggest stinker—it's definitely worse than the Grady Sizemore signing mess and the OF situation that's come out of it.

But don't get me wrong—I'm rooting for Ubaldo, and you should be too. This is Major League Baseball. There's no givesies-backsies. So right now, all of us Tribe fans better be hoping, wishing, and praying for Ubaldo to pitch like the 2010 Ubaldo Jimenez that amazed everyone in the league.

Otherwise, the Indians may have made one of the worst trades in the history of baseball.

Monday, April 2, 2012

A Look At... The Indians 25 Man Roster

Well hello there favorite blog followers. I know I've been a bit absent on here for the last month, but with an expanding role at Spec, there's been a little less time—along with a not too much to talk about—to write on here. But lo and behold, I'm back and fired up for the Indians season to start.

Here's the deal, though—are the Indians really ready to compete for the 2012 AL Central crown with their current 25 man roster?

Let me put it simply—NO.

You know how the Indians have their "What If?" campaign? Yeah, that's very nice to have for marketing, but if you ask me, it's not the way you put a team together.

I've already weighed in on the Grady Sizemore injury, but that is really what got them into this mess. Yes, friends, it really came to the Indians reportedly trying to deal for Bobby Abreu—a 38 year old, washed-up has-been, who hit .253 with just eight HRs and 60 RBI. Now if Abreu were just injured or something, maybe he'd have a better cae for wanting to resurrect his career someplace else, but the man played 142 games!

But the sad part—and I mean really sad part—is that Abreu would've been a whole lot better than what we've gotten out of the crop of players that were supposed to compete for the LF job this spring.

No one, and I mean no one grabbed the bull by the horns and took that job away, which means—if things stay as they are right now–Shelly Duncan will be the opening day, regular left fielder for the Cleveland Indians.

Now, I like Shelly Duncan. I think he did a good job this spring, leading the team with six HRs and 19 RBI. But let's face it—the man is 32, and he's been a part-time player for his entire career! It's unrealistic, and perhaps a bit unfair, to all of a sudden rely on him to be a productive, everyday player.

And that brings me to the real purpose of this post—I'm going to go through the 25-man roster and place a "?" next to players I'm at least a little concerned about going into this year. You may or may not agree, but, let's see what we have, huh?

(By the by, the list comes from mlb.com Indians beat writer Jordan Bastian's blog.)


Indians rotation
1. RHP Justin Masterson
2. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (?)
3. RHP Derek Lowe
4. RHP Josh Tomlin
5. RHP Jeanmar Gomez (?)
Indians bullpen
CL Chris Perez
RHP Vinnie Pestano
LHP Tony Sipp
RHP Joe Smith
LHP Rafael Perez
RHP Dan Wheeler (?)
RHP Jairo Asencio
Indians projected lineup
1. Michael Brantley, CF (?)
2. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
3. Shin-Soo Choo, RF (?)
4. Carlos Santana, C
5. Travis Hafner, DH (?)
6. Casey Kotchman, 1B
7. Jason Kipnis, 2B
8. Shelley Duncan, LF (?)
9. Jack Hannahan, 3B (?)
Indians bench
INF Jose Lopez
INF/OF Jason Donald
OF Aaron Cunningham (?)
C Lou Marson
To be quite honest with you, I actually have less question marks than I expected.

Clearly, the biggest question is Ubaldo Jiminez—and he certainly didn't help his case by drilling Troy Tulowitzki yesterday afternoon. But he also had a pretty bad spring, with an ERA over 7. That's awful. The only way he's going to be able to combat the perception that he stinks is if he starts to pitch like someone who deserved to be traded for Drew Pomeranz and Alex White. And right now, that's not looking so great as Pomeranz will be in the Rockies rotation, and White will be in their bullpen. 
I put a mark by Jenmar Gomez simply because he hasn't been in the majors for a full season yet. But based on his Spring Training, I think he's going to be alright.
When you move to the position players and the lineup, there are more questions, but not too many. 
Michael Brantley simply needs to step up and keep his development going in the right direction as a major leaguer. I think he'll be able to do that. Keep in mind he's only 24.
Shin-Soo Choo could get rid of that question mark right away this season if he comes out and looks like the Choo everyone got to know between 08-10. He reportedly looked in fantastic shape during Spring Training, and should be able to get back to his .300 average, with 20 HRs and 80 RBI form. 
Hafner, though...he has the biggest question mark of all—besides the non-listed Grady Sizemore, of course. Can he actually stay healthy for a full season? I doubt it. But if he can play 140 games with a .280 average and, say, 25 HRs? I think the Indians would be way more than pleased with that. And so would I.
I've already gone over Shelly Duncan earlier, so I'll skip to Hannahan. He only has the question mark denotation because of his offense—I expect his defense to be solid. But will he be the man who figured out how to hit after his son was born in August of last season, or will he be the hitter he's been for the rest of his career. Again, the guy is 32, so it's a bit unfair to ask him to do something he's never been able to do before. But maybe he'll hit enough to get by. At least until Lonnie Chisenhall is ready to take his place from AAA.
As it stands right now, the Indians have done absolutely nothing to improve the offense since the end of last year, and are relying on people staying healthy the whole season, or doing things they've never done before in order to contend in the AL Central. 
So here's the deal—if there are so many questions about people who will be playing most of the games for the Tribe, there are just too many "What If?" questions for the Indians to be thought of as serious contenders in the division. 
I'll have more for Thursday as we get ready for Opening Day. And even though I just hit you with all that negativity, I'll explain then why the Indians could still be fun to watch this season.
Just three more days, Tribe fans. Can't wait!
~MAS

Friday, January 27, 2012

Prince Fielder to the Tigers? Son of a—What do we do now?

Honestly, if you're an Indians fan, how can you have any other reaction? We just half-celebrated at the news that beloved former Indian Victor Martinez (who I will always remember how for literally being in tears after being traded from the Tribe to the Red Sox in '09. One of my all-time favorite Indians, definitely top 3) would be out all year with a torn ACL, and then we get this?!

Before you ask, "Did you really expect the Indians to be sign Prince Fielder?" my answer is absolutely not!

But I also didn't think he'd be showing up to work for the next nine years to put on a Tigers uniform, and that we'd have to pitch to him for 17 or 18 games a year.

Is that contract awful? Absolutely yes. Just as I thought about the Albert Pujols contract, nine years and $214 million is just absolutely ridiculous. How can you as an organization believe that you're going to get anything near the same kind of player at the end of that contract? Do you really want to be paying an aging star player probably $10 million more than he's worth at the end of that deal?

Probably not.

But this isn't to talk about how the Tigers will regret this contract in maybe six years. Right now this deal hurts the Indians. Badly.

And again, it's not even that I wanted Prince Fielder—although his fat self would have looked really great manning first base, I know that's completely unrealistic. But when it comes down to it, the Tigers made a hugely aggressive move in free agency to solidify themselves as the frontrunner in the AL Central for years to come. And what have the Indians done?

Well, when Fausto Carmona was revealed to be Roberto Hernandez Heredia, they traded for Kevin Slowey. And yes, I know they said they've liked Slowey for a while, but give me a freaking break, you and I both know they traded for him so swiftly because they needed depth after "Carmona" was officially out of the equation.

You see that, when the Tigers lose one of their key players, they sign someone who could have more of an impact. When the Indians lose one of their key pieces...well, they get someone who has had success in the AL Central, and has some upside, but didn't even win a game last season.

It's a damn shame, isn't it?

So here's where we are—"Carmona" is on the restricted list, which means that he doesn't count on the 25 or 40 man roster, and also doesn't get a paycheck until he reports to the organization. Based on everything I've read, that probably won't be in time for Spring Training, as the process for a visa application can take months. So what do we do?

I'll say this, the answer is not Kevin Slowey.

However, there is a player on the market named Roy Oswalt. Before you get into it about how much more expensive he is, let me just throw out a few numbers.

Because "Carmona" doesn't get paid until he shows up, if he doesn't show up at all this season, the Indians will save $7 million. Now, we've increased payroll by about $18 million just on our own players so far this offseason—and of course those depth minor league contracts. All that is well and good, but if the Dolans are going to spend when the time is right, well, the time is right now.

Oswalt will apparently look for about $7-8 million in a one year deal. I say if you shell out $16-17 million for two years for this guy, and why wouldn't he want to come here?

Even though he had a year that was fairly ravaged by injuries last season, he still made 23 starts for the Phillies going 9-10 with a 3.69 ERA. Okay, so record and ERA aren't all that they used to be with sabermetrics, and Oswalt's WHIP (Walks+Hits per Inning Pitched) was a career high 1.338, and his K/9 ratio (strike outs per nine innings) was a career low 6.0, but Oswalt has proven in the past that he's extremely durable.

The only thing holding back the Dolans from an aggressive move like this is outlined in this tweet from 92.3 The Fan's Daryl Ruiter.



So yes, the fact of the matter is the Dolans have poorly spent in the past, but if they're serious about contending, they've got to put the best rotation possible out there—especially if they want to beat the Tigers.

I have about no faith that Ubaldo is going to pitch any better against the Tigers this year—he had 6.35 ERA against them in five starts last season—so doesn't a top three of the rotation in Masterson, Oswalt and Tomlin sound really great?

Here's hoping the Dolans stop handcuffing Indians President Mark Shapiro and GM Chris Antonetti and allow them to make a move that will show the fan base that they're actually serious about this two year contending window.

Friday, August 5, 2011

So We're One Game Over .500...

As the title says, we're one game over .500 and now 3 games back of the Tigers -- good for second place in the AL Central. This upcoming series with the Rangers is absolutely huge, not only because Ubaldo is pitching for the first time, but because the Tigers happen to be playing the Royals and if they sweep (which is a real possibility), and we only win 1 game, we'll probably be in deep you-know-what. I'm glads that we're still in the race, but I'd like to keep it that way.

Here's the deal about that Boston series -- were you really expecting to win more than 2 games there? Anytime you can go away for a 4 game series with a team as good as the Red Sox and come away with a series split, I think you have to call that a success. The fact that we were in each and every game is just gravy to me. I think it's fair to say that the starting pitching in that series was excellent.

Even though Tomlin  gave up 5 runs, he kept the Indians in the game. Dave Huff has totally made a believer out of me with his 3 starts, especially going 5, 3-hit, shutout innings against the Red Sox. Even though Carlos Carrasco has looked like a man about to implode in his last few starts, he really got the job done, going 7 innings with 3 runs -- only 2 earned. And then Justin Masterson was dominant last night, striking out 9 in 6 innings, and giving up 3 earned runs.

So what does that all mean? Well, first off it means that we got 2 quality starts out of 4 games. If David Huff had gotten some defensive support behind him, I'm sure he would've been able to go another inning and get that notch on his belt. Maybe I put too much stock in quality starts, but I think with our bullpen if the starter can hold the opposition to 3 runs or less in 6 innings, we'll be in a great position to win.

The problem comes when we can't score more than 3 runs -- and that happened in our two losses to the Sox. Tuesday we only scored from the solo blasts of Kipnis and Chisenhall, relying on rookies in a penant race is never going to work. Wednesday, we managed 3 runs off of the knuckleballer Wakefield, but then the Red Sox 'pen shut us down.

And what do those numbers mean? Ehh, not very much other than the simple saying "You can't win, if you don't score."

Will we get help from Choo and Sizemore when they return in a few weeks? Well sure, it would be very nice, but I just don't think we can expect that. I don't think we should expect that, based on what they'd been doing the rest of the year. I think both players put a lot of pressure on themselves to play to the best of their abilities, and neither was doing a particularly good job of it this year. I think Sizemore was terribly plagued defensively too, sometimes looking clueless out in center rather than a former gold glove winner.

But those guys won't be playing in Texas. It's really going to be up to A-Cab, Hafner, Brantley and the finally-getting-hot Santana to carry the offense down in super hot Texas. Tim Cowlishaw just tweeted that it's 107 degrees down in Arlington, so I bet the ball will be carrying. The Rangers are 3rd in runs scored, 2nd in batting average, and 2nd in slugging percentage -- numbers that mean all our pitchers better bring their A-games.

And yes, that menas you Ubaldo.

Go Tribe!
~MAS

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Hello Ubaldo!

I'm conflicted.

I want to like this trade, I really do. But I just don't know that I can yet.

I mean, the Indians just don't do this! We trade our best guys for prospects, not the other way around. Never the other way around. At least not since the John Hart era.

Okay, did I want a big trade? Yes. Did I say I'd like Ubaldo Jimenez in an Indians uniform? Yes. But did I want to give up Pomeranz in the process?

Hell no.

Okay, yes we got a pitcher who blazed through the league in the first half of last season, but he has been a little more than human since July 19 of last season. After going 15-1 with a 2.13 ERA before that date, he went 4-7 with a 3.70 ERA the rest of the way. And then this year he started out April with a 6.75 ERA and went through May with a 5.45 ERA. I'm usually in favor of giving a guy the benefit of the doubt based on past services, but to give up your top prospect who has done nothing but gas guys in the minors, someone who projects to be in the rotation (maybe even the front of the rotation!) by next June, it just seems like a little too much to me.

Terry Pluto wrote it in his Sunday column, and I really agree with him that if the price was just White, Huff, and some others make the deal yesterday. I like that because you're giving up a RH starter and getting a RH starter in return. The problem is that we're not in a situation where Ubaldo is at the end of his contract, or only has one year left on it like when we traded CC and Cliff Lee. Because of that, the notion that we got less for both of those guys than we gave up for Ubaldo is correct -- and it should be since we have contractual control of Ubaldo for the next two seasons.

Regardless, it really doesn't matter if I like the deal or not, it's going to happen if Ubaldo passes his physical. Based on what I've heard about how he's lost significant velocity on his fastball (down from averaging 96mph to 93mph), I don't think it's a done deal that he will pass it with flying colors. I remember years ago, the Indians were going to trade Omar Vizquel to Seattle for Carlos Guillen and the deal fell through because Guillen didn't pass his physical. Granted, we'd probably have a good bat that the Tigers wouldn't have if that deal had actually gone through, but it just goes to show that the Indians take these physicals very seriously -- and they really should if they're going to have to give up their best pitching prospect.

This deal says a lot about what the front office has learned from the past decade of Indians baseball: Contention is not guaranteed. Remember what happened in '06 after the Indians finished with 93 wins in '05? Flameout. Remember what happened in '08 after the Indians were one game away from the World Series in '07? Flameout again. So only being 1.5 games out with two months to go, the Indians are treating this opportunity like it may not come again next year, and I think that's good.

Still, trading away a prospect -- even if that's all Pomeranz is -- who has a 1.98 ERA, 112 Ks and only 38 walks in 91 innings in his first full season is a tough pill to swallow. Unless Ubaldo can be like CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee after we traded them and carry us to the postseason, this trade could be questioned for a very long time to come.

~MAS