I'm conflicted.
I want to like this trade, I really do. But I just don't know that I can yet.
I mean, the Indians just don't do this! We trade our best guys for prospects, not the other way around. Never the other way around. At least not since the John Hart era.
Okay, did I want a big trade? Yes. Did I say I'd like Ubaldo Jimenez in an Indians uniform? Yes. But did I want to give up Pomeranz in the process?
Hell no.
Okay, yes we got a pitcher who blazed through the league in the first half of last season, but he has been a little more than human since July 19 of last season. After going 15-1 with a 2.13 ERA before that date, he went 4-7 with a 3.70 ERA the rest of the way. And then this year he started out April with a 6.75 ERA and went through May with a 5.45 ERA. I'm usually in favor of giving a guy the benefit of the doubt based on past services, but to give up your top prospect who has done nothing but gas guys in the minors, someone who projects to be in the rotation (maybe even the front of the rotation!) by next June, it just seems like a little too much to me.
Terry Pluto wrote it in his Sunday column, and I really agree with him that if the price was just White, Huff, and some others make the deal yesterday. I like that because you're giving up a RH starter and getting a RH starter in return. The problem is that we're not in a situation where Ubaldo is at the end of his contract, or only has one year left on it like when we traded CC and Cliff Lee. Because of that, the notion that we got less for both of those guys than we gave up for Ubaldo is correct -- and it should be since we have contractual control of Ubaldo for the next two seasons.
Regardless, it really doesn't matter if I like the deal or not, it's going to happen if Ubaldo passes his physical. Based on what I've heard about how he's lost significant velocity on his fastball (down from averaging 96mph to 93mph), I don't think it's a done deal that he will pass it with flying colors. I remember years ago, the Indians were going to trade Omar Vizquel to Seattle for Carlos Guillen and the deal fell through because Guillen didn't pass his physical. Granted, we'd probably have a good bat that the Tigers wouldn't have if that deal had actually gone through, but it just goes to show that the Indians take these physicals very seriously -- and they really should if they're going to have to give up their best pitching prospect.
This deal says a lot about what the front office has learned from the past decade of Indians baseball: Contention is not guaranteed. Remember what happened in '06 after the Indians finished with 93 wins in '05? Flameout. Remember what happened in '08 after the Indians were one game away from the World Series in '07? Flameout again. So only being 1.5 games out with two months to go, the Indians are treating this opportunity like it may not come again next year, and I think that's good.
Still, trading away a prospect -- even if that's all Pomeranz is -- who has a 1.98 ERA, 112 Ks and only 38 walks in 91 innings in his first full season is a tough pill to swallow. Unless Ubaldo can be like CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee after we traded them and carry us to the postseason, this trade could be questioned for a very long time to come.
~MAS
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