Start Me Up - Browns vs. Bills

So clearly I didn't get around to posting some mid-week filler in the last few days (but with two papers to do and finals to study for, can you blame me?) but the Browns take on the Bills today up in snowy Buffalo, New York in what I think should be called the Battle of I-90.

In the last three years, these two teams have met and the Browns have won all three match-ups. In 2007, there was the memorable Snow Bowl game where Phil Dawson hit two clutch field goals in crazy swirling wind, and the Bills snapped a punt over the head of their punter and out of the end zone for a safety. Then there was Romeo Crenel's last victory as coach of the Cleveland Browns in 2008, when Jerome Harrison had a 72 yard run for the Browns last offensive touchdown that year, and Phil Dawson hit a 56 yard field goal with 1:39 left in the game to win. And last year, there was Eric Mangini's first win as the coach of the Browns where the Browns got by on two Billy Cundiff (yeah, bet you forgot about that one, huh? I know I did...) field goals, and Derek Anderson had one of the worst games a Browns QB has ever had going 2/17 for 23 yards and an interception. So what's going to happen today?

Well I think any way you look at it, we'll have a great game. Sure, the Bills petered out last week against the Vikings after playing very well in their previous three games. They first had wins against Detroit and Cincinnati, two teams who are just not doing so well right now, and then took the Pittsburgh into overtime, eventually losing 16-19. They bring a lot of competitive fire to the table, but, in my opinion at least, not too much else.

First off, their run defense is terrible giving up 170.9 yards a game. With the weather conditions predicted to be as Buffalo as ever (meaning really snowy), I think that's a recipe for Peyton Hillis to have a terrific - if not career - kind of game, as long as he can stay away from the fumbles. He will also, in all likelihood, go over the 1000 yard rushing mark for the season as he's sitting on 962 right now.

Jake Delhomme will be the starting QB this afternoon, and I really think Brian Daboll knows that this is going to be a game managing situation for the veteran. The strength of the Bills defense is clearly in the way they defend the pass as they're only allowing 207.2 yards per game - it isn't the best, but it's definitely better than than what they do against the run. Yikes. The offense may or may not have Josh Cribbs back as a wide receiver and in the wildcat, but I'd say chances are more likely that he'll stay just on the kick coverage. At least that's what I think I'd prefer for him until he's closer to 100%. Last week it was clear to me that he was still hurting, as he just looked slow when running with the ball. Hopefully he'll be healthy sooner rather than later, as we could really use his talents for our last three weeks of the season.

But enough about the future, a big key for the Browns winning today will be if their defense can contain Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has really come on to be a productive quarterback this year. Fitzpatrick has thrown for 2384 yards with 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions - pretty solid numbers for a guy who has been a back-up for most of his short career. Fred Jackson (yeah, who?) is their running back, and he's had an alright season with 663 yards on the ground and five rushing touchdowns. As a team, I was surprised to find out that they're averaging more offensive yards per game than the Browns, 312 over 305. Still, I think the Browns will continue to show defensive improvement, and Joe Haden will go for his fifth straight game with an interception. I honestly doubt that he'll get it - if not because of the weather, than because Fitzpatrick studied film this week.

So what's the bottom line today? I think the Browns are going to show that they're over the hump because they're clearly the better team. I don't think we're going to see any of the slop we saw a few weeks ago with the Jaguars and then Panthers, and we'll see a team that's more like the one who took on the Jets, Patriots and Saints and came out 2-1 in that stretch. The Browns have been practicing outside in the cold elements of Cleveland this week and should be well prepared for the conditions at Ralph Wilson Stadium today. So I'm going with the Browns for a great, low scoring December win today.

The Prediction: CLE 17 - BUF 6

See you at the half,
~MAS

(p.s. I'd just like to say that I was very close to being right on my prediction last week, and I was quite right with my "Dawson hits a field goal to win it" call. Go me!)

Trades, Injuries and Colt McCoy?

There's a lot going on with the Browns this week, so I figured I'd do a little self-indulging with a midweek blog post.

First off, the Browns traded their former starting running back Jerome Harrison to the Philadelphia Eagles today for another running back, Mike Bell. I was a little surprised when I first read about it but after getting over the initial shock the trade seems to make a lot of sense from the Browns perspective. I've written about it and I've seen Terry Pluto write about it for the Plain Dealer - it just seemed like Harrison was not at all the same running back that put up 286 yards rushing against the Chiefs, and led the Browns offense to winning their last four games last season. It was widely reported that Harrison was unhappy about his role on the team now that Peyton Hillis has taken the bull by the horns in his role as starting running back, and, to me, that was clear by his play on the field. Hopefully there aren't too many hard feelings from Harrison as he parts ways from the Browns organization - though I will say that on some levels it seems like the Browns organization never truly appreciated his talent.

Now Mike Bell comes over from the Eagles where he was probably deemed expendable because of the emergence of their second year running back LeSean McCoy. Bell rejoins linebacker Scott Fujita on the Browns as they were both a part of the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints last season. He's in his fifth season in the NFL after making the Broncos as an undrafted free agent in 2006. His most productive seasons were his rookie season and then also last season, where he started three games and had over between 650-700 yards in both seasons. I think it's pretty clear that he's coming here because Browns General Manager Tom Heckert thinks highly of him and it was probably easy to make the deal with Heckert's former team.

There are also a few issues with quarterbacks and their sprained ankles on the Browns this week. According the Mary Kay Cabot of the Plain Dealer, Eric Mangini is now leaning towards starting Colt McCoy this week versus the Pittsburgh Steelers because of the high ankle sprains to both Jake Delhomme and Senece Wallace. Needless to say, this is not what Mike Holmgren envisioned for McCoy's first game in the NFL, but it looks like it's going to have to happen. I was really pleased with the way Holmgren came out right after McCoy was drafted to say that the plan for this year was for him to sit, watch and learn, but it really looks like the only smart thing to do is to play the kid at this point.

Look at it this way, McCoy has got some kind of competitive drive. He is the most winning quarterback in college football history, threw for 112 touchdowns, and had a completion percentage of 70.2 in his four years at Texas. He's been in the system, learning, getting reps since training camp and even though he's a rookie, I think he gives the Browns a better chance to win this week than Brett Ratliff. I also don't think it's a good idea to play Seneca Wallace when he's hurt, based on the fact that he needs his mobility and we also saw what happened to Delhomme when he was playing hurt last week.

I (sort of reluctantly) have to say that it's time to play Colt McCoy. Best case scenario? We've got the quarterback we thought we drafted. Worst case? Well...let's not even think about that. Until Sunday, Go Browns!

~MAS