When it comes to the Tribe, proceed with caution

One year ago today, I wrote a post with the headline, "Time to hit the panic button?" It detailed how the Indians pitching staff had been giving up huge run totals, and if the team had a poor stretch in Detroit and St. Louis, then many of those first place dreams would start to get snuffed out. 

I say all this because it's interesting that the Indians face a somewhat similar situation yet again this year as they head to New York, Detroit, and Texas. The team is 30-26—the exact record it had through 56 games in 2012—and the Yankees, Tigers, and Rangers will certainly provide a barometer for how legitimate the Indians are as a contending team. 

A screenshot of my preseason predictions from Twitter,
so you know it's real.

Now I know I didn't put this on the record here, but I said on Twitter just before the season started that I thought the Indians would finish third in the AL Central. I wasn't convinced the starting pitching would hold up at all, and I wasn't sure that the team would jell properly with all of its new faces in time for the team to contend. 

I suppose you could say that so far, they've proven me wrong. And yes, this team is certainly different than last year's iteration, and that starts with having Terry Francona as manager—not to mention the slew of new faces all around the diamond (I didn't realize this until Terry Pluto pointed it out in a recent article, but Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, and Asdrubal Cabrera are the only everyday players held over form last year). 

Still, even with all the differences, I'm sticking with "cautious optimism" when it comes to the Indians' legitimacy. Why? Well it comes down to three reasons. 

1. They're incredibly streaky

The Indians started out slow, got white hot, and are now in a rut again. Albeit we'll never know how Friday's game against Tampa Bay should have really worked because of the ludicrous rain delays, but I thought the team just looked flat on Sunday afternoon. They're now 4-9 in their last 13 games after winning 18 of 22. A big part of this rests on the recent struggles of the Tribe bullpen, but in general the team has got to find a way to be more consistent. 

This streakiness extends to individual players as well. Mark Reynolds and Carlos Santana, for example, got off to tremendous starts in April, but significantly cooled off in May. It would've been foolish to not expect both guys to drop off a bit, but Reynolds batted nearly .100 points lower in the season's second month and struck out 34 times. Santana had it even worse, hitting .200 in May versus .368 in April, and struck out 28 times—doubling his total from April. Those guys have got to level off in performance for the Indians to be consistently good. 

2. They need a starter...or two

This is probably better material for closer to the trading deadline, but the Indians aren't going to go anywhere with their current rotation. Justin Masterson has looked more like the pitcher he was in 2011, which is good because the Indians so badly needed an ace. Zach McAllister has been the team's second-best pitcher, and Ubaldo Jimenez looks like he's really made some progress—especially after his last start against the Rays. 

But honestly? McAllister would be a No. 3 starter on most contending teams, and with all the problems Jimenez has had since coming to Cleveland, he'd be a No. 4. I'm sorry but I have no confidence that Corey Kluber and Scott Kazmir will hold up for the rest of the season. And don't even bring up the possibly $7 million mistake named Brett Myers. 

I'd like to see Carlos Carrasco called up soon since he's dominating AAA, but his foolishness against the Yankees makes that more complicated than it should be. Trevor Bauer could also help the rotation, provided he cuts down on the walks. But the Indians will definitely have to scan the league for trade opportunities for a starter.

3. The bullpen is a mess

It's an obvious statement, but my goodness is it true. Right now, Francona has about two arms he can go to that have been consistent and reliable—Joe Smith and Cody Allen. Vinnie Pestano looked better in his last outing, getting his fastball up to 91-93 as opposed to the 87 he threw in Boston, but I even have concerns about him when he goes out there. All the rest of the scrubs—Matt Albers, Brian Shaw, Rich Hill, Nick Hagadone, Scott Barnes—have not been consistent enough fo the Indians to reliably stay in contention. 

I'm hopeful that this is just a rough stretch, and once Chris Perez returns from his DL stint that the 'pen will stabilize. But it's hard enough to get two years in a row of a strong bullpen, asking for three just might be a bit too much. 

As a programming note, now that I'm out of school for the summer, I should be able to update this here blog more consistently, so stay tuned. 

~MAS