The Carrasco everybody wants to see

Can Carlos Carrasco continue pitching like
one of the best in the AL? Or was his
start agains the Royals a mirage?
Image from Wikimedia Commons

Perhaps this is too obvious a statement to begin this post, but Carlos Carrasco is somewhat of an enigma.

Any time a starting pitcher can consistently throw his fastball at 95-97, scouts, managers, and GMs are going to think he's got a ton of potential. But of course, a pitcher must be able to locate that fastball, and have at least one or two off-speed pitches to keep hitters at bay.

Organizations covet those type of arms and are loathe to give them up. And if a pitcher like that is let go, some pitching coach somewhere is always going to believe he can fix whatever the problem is.

Perhaps just as important as the pitches is the mentality of the man on the hill. And we all know Carrasco has had plenty of problems with his temperament—especially after giving up home runs.

But for whatever reason, something Manny Acta said in spring training of 2011 has really stuck with me about the now 26-year-old starting pitcher.

"He has the stuff to be one of the best guys in the American League, period."

First of all, I can barely believe I found where I read that quote (sometimes it's a great thing nothing ever truly leaves the internet). Second of all, it's taken a couple years, but after last night it's starting to look like Carrasco could prove Acta right.

It's worth nothing, though, that last night's game, which ended in a 2-1 Indians loss, wasn't actually Carrasco's first dominant start. If you recall, he went 4-2 with a 1.90 ERA in six starts in June 2011, striking out 28 while walking just seven. One of those wins came against the Twins, where Carrasco went 8.1 innings, surrendered three hits, and walked one in the 1-0 victory.

Then in July...well, he blew out his arm, had to have Tommy John surgery, and hasn't won a game since.

But I'll say this—I don't know what manager Terry Francona and pitching coach Mickey Calloway told Carrasco after his disastrous previous start against the Tigers, but whatever it was it worked. Carrasco was absolutely electric agains the Royals, moving his fastball in and out to hitters with a devastating slider as an out pitch. He only threw 90 pitches in 7.1 innings—58 of which were strikes. He threw first-pitch strikes to 12 of the 27 batters he faced, not including those who made contact. And he left a game with a man on second and a one-run lead for what has been a shaky—at best—bullpen.

He also had a no-hitter going through the first 4.1 innings of the game. Maybe it's an odd thing to think, but during that fifth inning I started to worry that Carrasco would unravel once he gave up a hit, mainly because it's the type of thing he's done in the past.

But then he gave up a hit, and worked out of it. Then he worked out of another jam in the sixth, and shook off a two-out double in the seventh. This was a pitcher that looked fine, polished, but most of all mature. And make no mistake, maturity has been Carrasco's main problem when he's pitched before at the highest level.

Should the Indians have won that game? Absolutely, especially when you consider how many men were left on base. And as I've said before, the bullpen is just a hot mess right now. But if you aren't encouraged by the way Carrasco pitched, then you should probably have your head examined.

Does this mean Carrasco has turn the proverbial corner? No, but it's certainly a step in the right direction for a team that is only going to go as far as its starting pitching will take it. If Carrasco can keep the proper mentality out on the mound as he did last night, I think he'll be in great shape to put a string of good starts together.

When the Indians traded Cliff Lee in 2009, the man that pitched last night is the one the organization expected to get out of the deal. Who knows if he'll ever be that dominant of a pitcher on a consistent basis, but at least for one night, Carrasco certainly pitched like he was one of the best pitchers in the AL, period.

Here we go again? Let's hope not

Well, this is not what you want.

Will the real Indians please stand up? Could you let us know now the team we're going to watch through the rest of the regular season, because that's going to inform a lot about how the fans feel about watching these games. Is it the team that went 18-4 for a stretch, or the one that's started a road trip 0-6, with a real chance of going 0-9?

Yes, the real team probably lies somewhere between those two extremes, but as I wrote last week, right now the Indians are just too streaky.

Does a sweep at the hands of Detroit completed on June 9 end the entire season? No, of course not. But losing seven games in a row—along with 14 of the last 18—certainly doesn't inspire much confidence.

This is not the way things were supposed to be, especially not after the Dolans shelled out over $100 million in free agency to completely revamp the roster. Consider the fact that Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Michael Brantley are the only remaining position players from the 2012 roster. Not to mention the hiring of Terry Francona to manage the ball club.

And yet, the feeling right now is eerily similar to that of the past two seasons.

The solution is easy—start winning again. Unfortunately the remedy may not be so simple.

Really, everything is the problem right now—pitching, offense, defense. Pitching has been a problem, as the team's ERA ranks 13th in the league at 4.46 (Baltimore and Houston are worse). The starters were great during that 18-4 run, but overall are 11th in the league with a 4.56 ERA. The bullpen has been horrendous, ranking 14th in the AL with its 4.28 ERA. Because so many games have been feast or famine for the Tribe, they also by far rank dead last in the league with nine, and in MLB only Miami has fewer with seven.

Nick Swisher may have broken out of his 0-26 skid today, but he, Mark Reynolds, and Carlos Santana have got to find a way to become more consistent at the plate in order to drive the offense. Right now, Swisher isn't doing much to earn that $14 million salary.

Add the buffoonery of Chris Perez and a potential season-changing suspension for him, and it's easy to see why fans are starting to get turned off by this team.

Coming into the season, I didn't really think the Indians would be able to compete for the division title. But with all the changes, I also didn't see them taking another nose dive.

We keep hearing players like Jason Kipnis and Ubaldo Jimenez talk about how "different" everything is this year.

Well I'm sick of hearing it. If things are different, prove it on the field. Enough with the losing, let's have fun again.

When it comes to the Tribe, proceed with caution

One year ago today, I wrote a post with the headline, "Time to hit the panic button?" It detailed how the Indians pitching staff had been giving up huge run totals, and if the team had a poor stretch in Detroit and St. Louis, then many of those first place dreams would start to get snuffed out. 

I say all this because it's interesting that the Indians face a somewhat similar situation yet again this year as they head to New York, Detroit, and Texas. The team is 30-26—the exact record it had through 56 games in 2012—and the Yankees, Tigers, and Rangers will certainly provide a barometer for how legitimate the Indians are as a contending team. 

A screenshot of my preseason predictions from Twitter,
so you know it's real.

Now I know I didn't put this on the record here, but I said on Twitter just before the season started that I thought the Indians would finish third in the AL Central. I wasn't convinced the starting pitching would hold up at all, and I wasn't sure that the team would jell properly with all of its new faces in time for the team to contend. 

I suppose you could say that so far, they've proven me wrong. And yes, this team is certainly different than last year's iteration, and that starts with having Terry Francona as manager—not to mention the slew of new faces all around the diamond (I didn't realize this until Terry Pluto pointed it out in a recent article, but Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, and Asdrubal Cabrera are the only everyday players held over form last year). 

Still, even with all the differences, I'm sticking with "cautious optimism" when it comes to the Indians' legitimacy. Why? Well it comes down to three reasons. 

1. They're incredibly streaky

The Indians started out slow, got white hot, and are now in a rut again. Albeit we'll never know how Friday's game against Tampa Bay should have really worked because of the ludicrous rain delays, but I thought the team just looked flat on Sunday afternoon. They're now 4-9 in their last 13 games after winning 18 of 22. A big part of this rests on the recent struggles of the Tribe bullpen, but in general the team has got to find a way to be more consistent. 

This streakiness extends to individual players as well. Mark Reynolds and Carlos Santana, for example, got off to tremendous starts in April, but significantly cooled off in May. It would've been foolish to not expect both guys to drop off a bit, but Reynolds batted nearly .100 points lower in the season's second month and struck out 34 times. Santana had it even worse, hitting .200 in May versus .368 in April, and struck out 28 times—doubling his total from April. Those guys have got to level off in performance for the Indians to be consistently good. 

2. They need a starter...or two

This is probably better material for closer to the trading deadline, but the Indians aren't going to go anywhere with their current rotation. Justin Masterson has looked more like the pitcher he was in 2011, which is good because the Indians so badly needed an ace. Zach McAllister has been the team's second-best pitcher, and Ubaldo Jimenez looks like he's really made some progress—especially after his last start against the Rays. 

But honestly? McAllister would be a No. 3 starter on most contending teams, and with all the problems Jimenez has had since coming to Cleveland, he'd be a No. 4. I'm sorry but I have no confidence that Corey Kluber and Scott Kazmir will hold up for the rest of the season. And don't even bring up the possibly $7 million mistake named Brett Myers. 

I'd like to see Carlos Carrasco called up soon since he's dominating AAA, but his foolishness against the Yankees makes that more complicated than it should be. Trevor Bauer could also help the rotation, provided he cuts down on the walks. But the Indians will definitely have to scan the league for trade opportunities for a starter.

3. The bullpen is a mess

It's an obvious statement, but my goodness is it true. Right now, Francona has about two arms he can go to that have been consistent and reliable—Joe Smith and Cody Allen. Vinnie Pestano looked better in his last outing, getting his fastball up to 91-93 as opposed to the 87 he threw in Boston, but I even have concerns about him when he goes out there. All the rest of the scrubs—Matt Albers, Brian Shaw, Rich Hill, Nick Hagadone, Scott Barnes—have not been consistent enough fo the Indians to reliably stay in contention. 

I'm hopeful that this is just a rough stretch, and once Chris Perez returns from his DL stint that the 'pen will stabilize. But it's hard enough to get two years in a row of a strong bullpen, asking for three just might be a bit too much. 

As a programming note, now that I'm out of school for the summer, I should be able to update this here blog more consistently, so stay tuned. 

~MAS