You are what your record says you are, right? If that's true, the Indians are a team three games over .500 with a record of 44-41.
You can spin it as positively as you like—saying things like the Indians spent a good portion of the first half of the season in first place and now they're just three games behind Chicago in the AL Central. Or you could say the Indians are just a game out of the second Wild Card spot. All of those things are absolutely true.
But the fact remains that his team is undeniably flawed. You can't tell me a team with a run differential of -29 is all kinds of successful. And the fact that the team has the second highest ERA in the American League at 4.50 certainly doesn't bode well for their playoff chances.
And yet, here they are with 77 games left to go in the season with a real chance to contend. And everyone knows that in baseball, once you make the postseason anything can happen. It's one of the beautiful things about the sport.
But we're not here to conjecture about the second half—that'll come in a later post. Right now, I'll give the Indians some grades, and talk about some of the players who are doing it right, and others who need some work.
Offense: B-
The Indians offense has been...well, I'd say just a sliver above average. They rank seventh in runs scored in the AL, and 11th overall with 385 runs. They have very little power with only 78 HRs (the Yankees lead the league with 134), but they're fifth in doubles in the AL with 155. They rank eighth in the AL in batting average, slugging and OPS, but—and here's where they become that sliver above average—they're third in on-base percentage because of their league-leading 309 walks.
But when you look at the individual stats, you can see that the lineup is being carried by four players—Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, and Michael Brantley. If the Indians are going to make a run, they'll need better consistency from a whole bunch of people in that lineup.
Doing it right: Shin-Soo Choo
Placing Choo in the leadoff spot was no question Manny Acta's best move of the first half, and it could be argued that it was his best move in his tenure as manager of the Indians. Choo has repeatedly said that he was heating up before he made it to the leadoff spot, but since he's been there he's hit .330 with 9 HRs, 22 RBI, 19 doubles, 44 runs scored. When he leads off an inning, he's hit .367. Everybody likes to talk about Kipnis or Cabrera as the first half offensive MVPs, but without Choo in the leadoff spot, there's no way this team is just three games out of first.
Needs work: Carlos Santana
Santana, however, has pretty much been an unmitigated disaster at the plate. The Indians were counting on him building upon a pretty good 2011 where he hit 27 HRs, 79 RBI, and 35 doubles. Instead, he went out and laid a gigantic egg in the first half with just 5 HRs, 30 RBI, and 13 doubles. For those scoring at home, that projects to 10 HRs, 60 RBIs and 26 doubles. That's not what you want out of your "cleanup" hitter.
In fact, as cleanup hitter this year Santana has hit—wait for it—an astonishing .180 with 4 HRs and 19 RBIs. I know batting average isn't everything, but .180 is entirely unacceptable from the cleanup hitter. On the plus side, when he's hitting 5th, Santana has hit .289. Look for him to be there behind Travis Hafner for the 2nd half.
The Indians aren't going anywhere without Hafner and Santana producing at the very least like average four and five hitters.
Pitching: D
I considered giving this portion of the team an "F," but I guess the pitching hasn't been a total failure. It has been, however, pretty darn inconsistent. And you can thank Joe Smith, Vinnie Pestano and Chris Perez for saving that grade.
I'll be blunt—a 4.50 ERA is not going to land this team in the playoffs. And although Justin Masterson had been pitching very well, that clunker against the Rays last Friday didn't do him any favors in my book. It seems like Ubaldo Jimenez has righted himself, and I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt until he he maks me believe otherwise.
But honestly, who in the rotation do you have full confidence in every five days?
Doing it right: Chris Perez & Vinnie Pestano
I put these two together because when these two guys come in the game is pretty much over. Okay, so Perez blew the last game before the break, but the Indians are 26-3 when Perez and Pestano pitch in the same game. That's about as good as you can get from that kind of twosome. I was one of the fools clamoring for Perez to be traded after his Opening Day debacle, and I am very happy to eat some crow now. Perez is undoubtedly one of the most valuable players on this roster. And even though Pestano seems to have the makings of a closer, I'd like to see those two guys keep the 8th and 9th locked down for the next few years together.
Needs work: Everyone else
Okay, so maybe not everyone—Joe Smith and Esmil Rogers (who has a 2.02 ERA since coming to the Tribe) can be exempt—but seriously, there is room for improvement in pretty much every single pitcher. The bullpen's ERA is 4.31 overall, and the rotation's is 4.59. Those are not the kind of numbers that are going to get a team into the playoffs.
And don't read that as me being negative, it's just me being realistic.
Josh Tomlin, Derek Lowe, and Zach McAllister all need to shape up and give the team some kind of consisten play. Not every start will be a quality start, but just keep the team in the game. And McAllister especially needs to learn how to pick his defense up after an error—we've now seen him unravel after one occurs in a couple of starts in a row. That happens with a young pitcher, but it can't continue at the rate it has if the Indians are going to go places.
Overall: C+
As they stand right now, the Indians are a .500 baseball team—not that great, not that bad either, just...average. Anthony Castrovince wrote this in a blog post a few weeks ago, and it still stands the same now. Can they pull it together and win the Central? Absolutely yes, it's entirely possible. But without external improvements, I just don't see this team being in contention for a playoff spot in September.
My educated guess? The Indians will do their best to make a bold move, but they don't really have multiple top-tier prospects to deal for a front line kind of player. I think they should have traded for Carlos Quentin yesterday, but it does take two to tango and the Padres seem to want a pretty penny for him.
So what will happen in the second half? I have no idea. I did pick the Indians to go 79-83, and they still could prove me right, but I really hope they don't.
Let's just enjoy the ride, Tribe fans.
~MAS
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