Start Me Up - Browns @ Ravens

You know, I completely forgot about coming on this here blog to gloat about how exactly right I was in my predictions in last week's Start Me Up. You know, how I said quarterback Seneca Wallace has a tendency to do stupid things (re: fumbling at the goal line) and another special teams breakdown would lose the game?

Times like those, I'm not particularly happy to be right...but I can't say I'm surprised.

But if you wanted to just see me gloat, you probably wouldn't be here—this is all about Browns versus Ravens. And if you watched the absolute pounding the Dirty Birds gave the Browns a few weeks ago in the Factory of Sadness, you know this one could get very ugly, very fast today.

In case you forgot, Ray Rice ran all over the Browns lowly running defense for 204 yards on 29 carries—good for a 7.0 average. All told, the Browns gave up 290 yards on 55 carries—that's a 5.5 average. If I may, those are awful numbers.

So obviously, the Browns defense definitely has a lot to prove today. Dick Jauron is working with a rag-tag bunch with key players linebacker Scott Fujita and safety T.J. Ward out for the year, but honestly there's no excuse for giving up nearly 300 yards on the ground. The D did a pretty good job last week of containing Beanie Wells and the Cardiñals ground attack, but I don't think anyone is going to confuse Arizona and Baltimore's offense. I don't really think the Browns realistically have a chance, but if the defense can come through like they did versus Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago they can at least keep the game interesting to watch.

But...the problem comes in that we're facing the Ravens defense, led by Ray Lewis and graduate of Ball So Hard University, Terrell Suggs.


If Seneca Wallace and company aren't scared, maybe they should be.

On the other hand, the last time the Browns were in Baltimore, Peyton Hillis ran for 144 yards and a touchdown and Wallace was 18/24 for 141 yards and a touchdown. Last week, Pat Shurmur did a good job coaching these guys up and calling a good game to put the Browns up 17-7 in the third quarter, but then got so incredibly conservative that everything fell apart. Well, that and it was like all of a sudden Arizona remembered that they could play defense and the Browns just had nothing to counter it.

Here's the deal—Shurmur has got to realize that 17 points is usually not enough to win games in the NFL. It's certainly not going to be realistic to ask your defense to hold the Ravens to under 17 points today. It's week 16—it's time to open up the playbook so that we see more than these four plays.

As we saw last week, Seneca Wallace is very capable of leading the team down the field to score touchdowns. Again, Arizona's D is not nearly as good as Baltimore's, but in order for me to believe in this "process" and the "progress," I need to see something real, something sustained on both sides of the ball. The bar is pretty darn low for the defense to show some progress based on the way they crapped out against Baltimore on 12/4, but it has to be done.

The Ravens have got plenty to fight for today including a division title and a chance at the #1 seed in the AFC, so I'd expect that they're going to come out and give us everything they've got. It's going to take a lot to keep us competitive, but stranger things have happened, right?

Maybe, just maybe, the Browns will give us a nice Christmas gift today. But if you think that means I'm picking the Browns, you must not know how much I like to be right.

The Prediction: BAL 17 - CLE 10

I don't think the Browns will come out and surprise the Ravens like they did the Steelers and Cardinals on the first drive again, but the defense will probably surprise us with a good game—until the fourth quarter, that is. Look for a long touchdown pass from Joe Flacco to rookie Torrey Smith to seal the deal today.

Enjoy the game, and I'll see you at the half.
~MAS