We're Not Even Supposed to Be Here

I think it's pretty safe to say that the Indians just went through an excruciating road trip.

I always say that if a team plays about .500 baseball on the road, and well above .500 at home, then they should be in a good position to get into the playoffs. If this road trip were 6 games then by that adage, 3 wins would be considered successful. Unfortunately for the Tribe, this was a 7 gamer and thus the sad truth is that 7 games mean feast or famine -- you win 4 games and it's a great success, but if you lose 4 you've failed.

The latter is what the Indians must face after 4 games in Boston and 3 games in Texas. The worst part about this trip is that the Tribe had an opportunity to win each and every game -- especially the ones in Texas.

I was actually really pleased with the way we handled the Boston series, a split in 4 games on the road is what you want. But the hot mess in Texas is a totally different story.

When you're up by 2 runs or more an it's the 8th inning or later, you shouldn't lose the game. Period. I don't care who you're playing or what ballpark you're in. As consistent as our bullpen has been this year, that should never be a problem. Clearly, that meant nothing to the Rangers as both Chris Perez and Joe Smith had meltdowns that saw our leads of 2+ runs in the 8th inning or later evaporate.

Now, last night when Smith came in, I wondered, Isn't this Vinnie Pestano territory? And I was probably right, since after the game Manny Acta said that Chris Perez and Tony Sipp were both unavailable after all they had pitched this weekend. So Pestano was probably acting closer, and Smith's job was to clean up the runners Tomlin had left on.

Of course, what resulted was a colossal failure. Yet, in the aftermath of that dreadful inning, I was surprised to find that I wasn't extremely ticked off. Maybe it's because the 3 walk-off losses on the trip had prepared me for it, or maybe I was just in such a state of shock that I couldn't feel anything. But after the Indians completed their 1-2-3 9th inning, I started thinking about the season as a whole.

Way back on April 1, I sat at my desk in my dorm room and wrote this Start Me Up post before the Indians opened the season against the White Sox. And in it, I predicted they'd go 82-82. We've got 50 games left, and what's our record? 56-56.

I'm not really saying this to toot my own horn, or brag about how I was right, but the plain truth is that my "prediction" was wildly optimistic at the time. Of course, we were all expecting the Indians to take strides and get better this year, but nobody was actually expecting them to contend -- including me. Honestly, who expected the Twins and White Sox to be as bad as they've been? Even the Tigers --  they may be leading the division, but they're only 4 games up over our .500 team.

If we were in any other division, we wouldn't even be close. Not that 4 games is all that close when you're this deep into the season, but thank goodness we're not in the AL East. Toronto is 58-56 and they're 12 -- yes twelve -- games behind Boston. The NL East is even worse, as the Mets are 56-57 and 17 games back.

So I guess the fact that we're even having a conversation about contention is a blessing in and of itself. But I have to say that the way this team has played since it was 30-15 -- going 26-41 -- just doesn't inspire confidence in me.

Really, this team reminds me a lot of the '04 team, which was in a similar place for contention in August of that year. On the 15th, the Tribe was 63-55, good enough for 1 game behind the Minnesota Twins, who they were playing in Cleveland. They ended up losing the game in 10 innings, and the team just wasn't the same in the aftermath, finishing 80-82, 12 games behind the Twins.

But remember what happened the next year? Our team was great, winning 93 games, and just missing out on a Wild Card berth.

So here's the point, that '04 team wasn't supposed to contend either, and even though they were in a position to at one point, they didn't in the end. And although I would like nothing more than to be proven wrong, I think that's where this '11 version of the Tribe is heading too.

After a 30-15 start, will missing the playoffs be disappointing? Absolutely yes. But the Tribe is still on track to contend in 2012 and beyond.

And so despite the fact that I hate this saying, and I'm sure you hate it too, it looks like we're going to have to "Wait 'till next year" yet again. But I really think this time we're going to see that waiting pay off.

At least I really hope so.

~MAS