Sunday, January 2, 2011

Start Me Up - Steelers vs. Browns

Well Browns fans, we've come a long way this season and it comes to a close today as the 11-4 Pittsburgh Steelers come into town to face our 5-10 Cleveland Browns in the regular season finale.

There is a heck of a lot riding on this game - for the Steelers. If they win, they secure the #2 seed in the AFC, which means a bye week to start the playoffs and then facing the winner of the Ravens/Colts (I'm projecting that the Colts will win their division with Peyton Manning...) in the divisional round at home. If the Steelers lose, they have to go to Kansas City next week, and if they win that game they face New England in Foxboro for the divisional round.

Now, which scenario would you prefer?

That's why this game has extreme importance, and not just because of the "rivalry." Let's be serious, before last season's 13-6 shocker the Browns had lost to the Steelers two times a year since 2003, when Tim Couch had his best game as a Brown and led us to a 33-13 victory. On the ESPN "Game Preview" page, it shows the Browns record against the Steelers since 2001 which is a horrendous 2-18.

Offensively, the Browns are going to have to take risks and be creative. Why not? We're 5-10, and boy would it be nice to give the Steelers a parting shot - especially if you're Eric Mangini and could be about to lose your job. Peyton Hillis will not be 100% in all likelihood, which means Mike Bell and even Josh Cribbs could see a lot of time in the backfield. I'm not particularly fond of those odds for our running game, but it has a chance.

Colt McCoy has a distinct advantage that no other quarterback in Eric Mangini's short tenure as the Browns head coach has had (so far) in that he will be facing the same divisional opponent twice in the same year (nope, it's 2011 now!) season. His first outing against the Steelers was his NFL debut, in which he not only wasn't eaten alive, but was 23/33 for 281 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. He also managed four rushes for 22 yards. To me, McCoy rarely looks overmatched, and I think he'll have a decent showing against the defense ranked 14th in the league against the pass. (They're 1st against the run, with only 64.1 yards given up per game. Yikes.)

Defensively, the Browns are going to have their hands full with Ben Roethlisberger and company. Mike Wallace has emerged as a great primary target and big play threat, as he's caught 57 passes for 1102 yards and 9 touchdowns this season - that's an average of 20.2 yards per catch. Rashard Mendenhall has also had a great season, with 1237 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. With the Browns defense failing to stop the run effectively in the last few weeks, their ranking in that category has fallen down to 26th in the league, while their passing D has been effective enough to stay at #13. I'd expect the Steelers to try and pound it down the Browns throats and dare the team in brown and orange to stop them.

I would love to see Eric Mangini close out the 2010 campaign with a win, but I honestly don't think that's going to happen. I believe the Browns will empty the playbook, give everything they've got and leave it all on the field, but it won't be enough to get past a very motivated Steelers team on the shore of Lake Erie today.

The Prediction: PIT 28 - CLE 17

See you at the half,
~MAS

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