I've got a new, sleek, awesomely-wonderful-in-every-way MacBook Pro and this is the first blog coming to you from this fine piece of machinery as the 10-4 Baltimore Ravens come into snowy Cleveland to take on the 5-9 Browns. A lot has been said about the Browns losing two consecutive games to 2-win teams (surprisingly, little by me) and head coach Eric Mangini's chances of keeping his job, but for now the Browns have still got the Mangenius so we'll have to see what they can get done today.
If you go back to the game these two teams played way back week 3 of the season in September, the Browns put up a valiant fight in the loss. They had the lead in the fourth quarter before blowing it when Anquan Boldin caught a 27 yard pass to cap off a touchdown drive, and then Billy Cundiff added a field goal to seal the deal. That game, Seneca Wallace was 18/24 for 141 yards passing and a touchdown, but Peyton Hillis was huge with 144 yards on 22 carries. We've already heard Ray Lewis come out this week to say that's not going to happen again, and I believe him. People just don't run on the Ravens like that two times in one season.
The key to this game on the offensive side will be if we can establish and then maintain balance with the run and pass. Now, I'm pretty sure you could say that with just about every game you come across, because who doesn't want balance in their offensive game plan? But I think it's especially important this week as they are clearly going to be keeping bodies in the box to stop Hillis and at the same time will undoubtedly blitz the heck out of Colt McCoy in clear passing situations. It's going to come down to if the Browns can get enough yards on first and second down to make "Third-and-Manageable" situations, so third-and-three, or third-and-four. If there's ever a third-and-long, look out for the blitzkrieg.
Defensively, the Browns are going to have a tough time dealing with both Ray Rice and Joe Flacco. Both have had solid seasons, with Rice rushing for 1,051 yards and 4 touchdowns, and Flacco throwing for 3,395 and 23 touchdowns, good for a 94.8 rating that's 7th in the NFL (6th if you don't count Tony Romo). Although Rice is widely regarded as one of the best in the league, it's really not because he goes over 100 yards rushing each week - it's the receptions. He has 62 of them for 556 yards and a touchdown so far this season. Last week, the Ravens beat the New Orleans Saints behind Rice's best game of the season as he had 153 yards on 31 carries, 80 yards on 5 receptions, a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown. You add in wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason, who have 813 yards and 718 yards, respectively, and you can see why defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has certainly had his hands full.
The Browns did a nice job defensively during the first three quarters of the Baltimore game earlier this season, and I think a big part of the breakdown was Flacco challenging Eric Wright who just was not up to it. That was before the emergence of Joe Haden, and Wright has since been placed on the Injured Reserve list, so I doubt we'll see Bolden catch 8 passes for 142 yards and 3 TDs again. It would have been really nice to have Scott Fujita back this week for run support, but he has also been placed on that IR, which meas everyone else has to be on their A-game for run support. The Browns cannot afford to let Rice run all over them like they did with Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott last week.
Do I think the Browns can pull out a win today? Well, I certainly hope so. But based on the way this team has played since they lost to the Jets back in week 10, I just don't really see it happening. As an optimist, I hope they do. I hope they can get the win to maybe help Mangini keep his job. Rob Ryan gave the head coach a shining endorsement earlier this week, and said that it would be dumb to blow up everything now. I think he's right about that. But will I predict the Browns to win today?
Nah...The Ravens could be a championship-caliber team, and they're not going to let the Browns play the role of "Spoiler" today.
The Prediction: BAL 30 - CLE 20
See you at the half,
~MAS
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